Monday, September 28, 2009

The Answer Man


Everyone loves a good prediction, and in these, the days leading up to the season, there's no shortage of questions out there that need an answer. Here's my take on some of the issues dancing through the minds of NHL fans everywhere.

- Will the Leafs make the playoffs? Yes. Which rookies, apart from Stalberg and Gustavsson deserved to stay with the big club to kick off the season? None of them - Ron Wilson got it right.

- Are the Canadiens better than they were last year? No. Why not? Because Gomez and Gionta won't score at the pace they have in the pre-season.

- Dany Heatley says he did nothing wrong in asking to be traded. I disagree. Is Ottawa a better team without him? Without question. The combination of Alexei Kovalev, Jonathan Cheechoo, and Milan Michalek will produce far more collectively than Heatley ever could, which is important because for many years, finding secondary scoring in Ottawa has been near impossible.

- Did Wayne Gretzky do the right think in resigning from his coaching position with the Coyotes? Absolutely.

- How many games will Marian Gaborik play this year? I'll drink the rest of Glen Sather's Kool Aid and say more than 70.

- Who will be the starting goalie for the Anaheim Ducks? Next question.

- Who will be the starting goalie for the Washington Capitals. I can't say for certain who will enter the season with that distinction, but by the end of it, Semyon Varlamov will have played more games than Jose Theodore.

- Should Calgary have kept Theo Fleury? Yes. The Sutters dropped the ball again. Luckily, Olli Jokinen will have a tremendous bounce-back season and keep Calgary in the mix atop the Northwest division.

- Which off-season acquisition will have the biggest impact? Chris Pronger. Just think about it. Every team he's gone to since leaving St. Louis has had tremendous success with him in the line-up. Once he gets healthy, Marian Hossa will also be huge for Chicago, who in all likelihood, will make the Finals in 2010.

- Which teams are poised to fall out of the playoff picture? Montreal and possibly Carolina in the East. Enter Toronto, and Ottawa or Atlanta. If anyone in the West, it'll have to be Columbus, making way for the upstart LA Kings.

I've opened myself up (potentially) to a lot of criticism come season's end, but hey, what else is new.

Enjoy the puck drop on Thursday.


Saturday, September 12, 2009

Constructing Canada


We're six months from the Olympics, and Canada's orientation camp has come to a conclusion. The reviews are in, but do they really matter? At the end of the day, is Jarome Iginla's weak effort or Simon Gagne's injury going to determine their fate come the roster announcement this December? Probably not. Everyone knows all these players too well. It's the months of regular season play leading up to the tournament that will have the biggest impact on each team's composition. Of course there are locks to make the team, but about 1/3 of the roster is open for debate, perhaps more than that if you're like me and believe players like Dany Heatley and Joe Thornton (who just became teammates and can hide TOGETHER in the playoffs from now on) have no business wearing the red and white in 2010.

Regardless, Canada will have a team to be reckoned with. In fairness though, some of the other teams are looking pretty snazzy on paper (Russia, anyone?) and let's not forget our horrendous seventh place finish in 2006. Any number of teams can walk away with gold, mostly because every country has a goaltender capable of stealing one game at a time, all the way to the final. It used to be the case that Canada's distinct advantage was in goal, but now I would argue it is our biggest question mark, if not weakness heading into Vancouver.

The favorite to start, Martin Brodeur, is well past his prime, the evidence being three straight sub-par playoff performances. Years, not games. Then there's the Golden Boy - Roberto Luongo. Sure he looks slick and talks a big game, but where are the results? I know he hasn't played for the Detroit Red Wings, but if he's as good as everyone says he is, how is it that he's never advanced past the second round of the playoffs? Why does he have a losing record for his career? He's never won anything of significance, and hey, he was the goalie that got hammer-timed 6-3 by Kazakhstan at the 1998 World Junior Championships. I'm just saying I'm worried.

I won't be though, if somehow Steve Yzerman ignores popular opinion and selects the right goalies. Who are they you might wonder? Well, in my eyes, they are Marc Andre Fleury, Cam Ward, and Marty Turco. I just think that trio stacks up better against combos like Ryan Miller and Tim Thomas, Niklas Backstrom and Mikka Kiprusoff, or Henrik Lundqvist and whomever is sitting on Sweden's bench.

We can win it all, or fall all the way to seventh again. No result would be surprising when you consider the talent that will be gathering at the Olympic hockey tournament this February.

Dilemma in the Desert


If you haven't seen The Never Ending Story, this remake should suffice. The Phoenix Coyotes bankruptcy situation has completely overshadowed whatever else has happened in the hockey world this summer, and will continue to occupy the spotlight until Judge Redfield T. Baum decides on the appropriate course of action.

I can't speak intelligently on these matters as they pertain to American Bankruptcy Law or Competition Rules, but I can chime in on some of the issues underlying this whole mess, the most prominent being NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman's apparent vendetta against RIM boss Jim Balsillie. Let's remember, a few years back when Balsillie attempted to buy the Nashville Predators, the league elected instead to give the team to one Mr. William "Boots" Del Biaggio. The latter is now serving an eight-year prison sentence for his involvement in an investment scheme, prior to which, he needed financial assistance from the NHL to keep the Predators afloat. All the while, it is the mandate of the NHL that Jim Balsillie is "not of the character" required to be an owner in their league. Really? Give me a break.

The simple fact of the matter is that pride is hard to swallow. Gary Bettman is embarrassed. Embarrassed about taking the game to markets that can't sustain franchises (Phoenix, Nashville, South Florida, and Atlanta) and embarrassed about what happened the last time he hand-picked someone to help a team out of financial hell. One of the lessons we can take from this is that it is never a good idea to sell a professional sports franchise to an adult with a nickname. The other is that Bettman is simply prolonging the admittance of his mistakes.

At the end of the day, Bettman and his owners may get their way, but it will only postpone the inevitable. Think of it like Terminator 2.

Eventually, there will be no more professional hockey in Phoenix. Eventually there will be another professional hockey team, maybe even two more, in Southern Ontario. And eventually Jim Balsillie will own a professional sports team, more than likely in the NHL. Eventually.

Jerry Moyes, Wayne Gretzky, and the fans of the Coyotes want someone to stop the bleeding, and they want someone to provide them with some closure on this thing. Redfield T. Baum may be that person, but alas, we wait.

New Look Leafs


I'm the first person to give credit where credit is due, but let's not give Brian Burke the key to the city just yet. Leaf fans everywhere are doing cart-wheels in anticipation of the '09-'10 season, which kicks off with an exhibition game against the superior Bruins this Wednesday. To steal a phrase from the outspoken GM himself, the trainer isn't going to have to tape my wrists from doing cart-wheels. Sure they're tougher, but exuberance, grit, and collecting PIMS won't do much for the win column. Hold on Slink... "It worked in Anaheim!" you say. Sure it did, but they also had Ryan Getzlaf, Andy McDonald, Scott Niedermayer, and the ageless Teemu Selanne. If you know of anybody even close to as good as any of those four on the current Leafs roster, please enlighten me.

Don't get me wrong, I want to believe. I want to believe Mikhail Grabovski and John Mitchell will continue to progress. I want to believe Jason Blake will get back to the 30-goal plateau. I want to believe Mike Komisarek will make Tomas Kaberle better. I want to believe "The Monster" is the real deal. The bad news is that hope is a dangerous thing. The good news is if it all goes down as planned, there's nothing stopping Toronto from making it into the playoffs - perhaps as high as the 6th seed.

Here's what I know - there are only four teams that we can pencil in for playoff spots (Pittsburgh, Washington, Philadelphia, and Boston). Beyond this impressive foursome, the field is wide open, because much like the situation in Toronto, the rest of the teams in the East will have to deal with a surplus of variables and question marks from the moment the puck drops on October 1st.